There are three rules of getting involved in a Civil War:
2. Pick the winning side.
3. Make sure the winning side wins.
The United States has a very dismal record in keeping to these rules and if recent activity and talk are any indication as to what’s about to happen our record will get much worse before it gets any better.
First off let’s look at winners and losers:
In the Loser category we have first and foremost the Syrian people who will now be listed as “Collateral Damage” which is a term that means they’re going to die when the bombing begins. Whatever war makes bad more war makes worse for civilians. “We had to destroy the village in order to save it.”
Israel comes in second because when this war breaks out there is almost a certainty that someone is going to try to drag Israel into it. Iran and Syria could send more missiles into Israel than anyone can guess. Loaded with Sarin we could very well be staring at the extinction of Israel in less than a month.
Jordan comes in third because when all hell breaks loose they are going to inherit a mass of refugees. This will tax the already meager resources of this tiny country to the breaking point. Either Syria, the United States, Israel, or hell, anyone with an interest in this war, might just overrun Jordan and never look back.
The United States Tax Payer is footing the bill for this war even though more people oppose it than voted for either party in the last election. With a weaken economy and an exploding national debt, the last thing we need is an open ended conflict in the Middle East.
The United States reputation. Either we go in big and get bogged down or we go in light and the bad guys survive to kill another few hundred thousand people. Desert War One or Desert War Two, either model was and is a failure.
Iran makes out like a bandit on this one. They get into a situation where with little effort they can once again drain American blood and money on the sands of the desert without much loss. They gain the reputation of being someone who can kill Americans with impunity. As the Sunni regime in Syrian weakens the Shiites in Iran rejoice. We’re doing their dirty work for them. We gave them one country and now we’ll hand over another.
Russia wins big because they’ll help anyone who fights us and they look like the country out there protecting the little guy from the big bully. The Syrian government will survive and they’ll become a puppet state to either Russia or Iran.
The Oil Speculators win because oil will take a big jump in price in this war.
Those people in the business of war will make out nearly as well as they did in the last war, but this time they’re better prepared for it.
The idea that there is a weapon whose capabilities include the annihilation of Sarin without the possibility of that agent being released into the surrounding area is ludicrous. Under pristine conditions I would argue that it would be difficult to know how much Sarin might be destroyed and under field conditions the attack on such an agent might be in fact a delivery system. Moreover, what will happen if this substance is stored in a building and the building is partially destroyed yet the material within intact? Who would be responsible for the cleanup of a nerve agent once there has been a “regime change”?
Is the White House omniscient? Has anyone who has lived in that building shown any signs of omniscience? So far the battle cry of “Something must be done and done right away!” has left this country economically weak and morally bereft. Our attack capabilities exceeds our ability to deal with the aftermath of the destruction we mete out in the name of what our view of what is right and what is just when in the end, we discover that we are frequently wrong and nearly never able to provide justice or security for those we have attacked.
This isn’t a foreign policy. This isn’t national security. This is reactionary cowardice cloaked in military action pushed by corporate interests in the name of profit margins.
Just like the last two wars.
Mike writes regularly at his site: The Hickory Head Hermit
Opinions expressed in this article are not necessarily those of the management of this site.